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中国银行业发展报告发布 今年银行业发展将呈现六大趋势

在金融供给方结构改革不断深化和金融监管协调推进的背景下,银行业将面临哪些机遇和挑战?它的发展趋势有哪些特点? 7月10日中国银行业协会在北京发布的《2019年度中国银行业发展报告》(以下简称《报告》)显示,有六大趋势值得关注。

具体来说,首先是银行资产的增长率预计会稳定,信贷投资仍然会偏向低风险地区。二是存款增长压力有所缓解,但流动性管理难度仍然存在。三是监管政策的指导。民营企业和小微企业的融资环境将继续改善,信贷将继续增长。第四,净息差可能达到峰值,预计净手续费收入将进一步改善。第五,资产质量可能面临压力。不同的机构将继续区分;第六,在多重因素的叠加下,银行业的利润增长率将趋于稳定和放缓。

“在增加银行信贷和适当放宽资产负债表外业务监管要求的背景下,银行资产的增长率预计将稳定并保持7%至8%的稳定水平。”交通银行首席经济学家贾连平表示,从信贷投资的偏好来看,银行业将重点关注三个方面,一是信用卡和住房抵押贷款;另一方面,在基础设施投资方面,该银行将针对PPP融资项目。分配更多的信贷资源;第三是国家支持的领域和薄弱环节,如包容性金融和绿色金融。

除资产方面外,银行业的债务方面也会出现新的变化。《报告》人们认为,今年商业银行存款增长的压力将被边缘化,但核心存款增长的压力仍然存在,流动性管理的限制仍然存在。

The reason is mainly due to the variable internal and external operating environment, and it is difficult to significantly improve the cash flow pressure of the corporate sector, which will put pressure on the growth of core deposits. Therefore,《报告》expects that the growth of deposits of commercial banks will still rely on structural deposits, and the proportion of active liabilities may continue to increase.

In addition, in response to changes in the “net fee” that the industry is highly concerned with,《报告》pointed out that as the financial subsidiaries of a number of commercial banks continue to land, net fee income is expected to change positively. "On the one hand, the main contribution of the growth of net fee income of commercial banks in 2018 comes from the credit card business. It is expected that most banks will continue to exert their efforts in this business; on the other hand, with the opening of financial subsidiaries, it is expected to be a wealth management business. Under the premise that the income will drop sharply in 2018, this year there will be obvious repairs," Lian Ping said.

What are the next development trends in response to asset quality issues that are of general concern to all sectors of society?《报告》It is believed that asset quality follow-up may still be under pressure and different institutions will continue to differentiate.

Specifically, since 2018, under the influence of supervision and encouragement of strengthening non-performing loans, the rate of non-performing loans has risen, especially the accelerated exposure of non-performing loans by city commercial banks and rural commercial banks, but the rate of non-performing loans is still generally The control interval, and with some banks basically overdue loans over 90 days into non-performing loans, the “hidden burden” of the bank's asset quality has been greatly reduced.

However, it is worth noting that the bank's non-performing assets will usher in a more stringent "ruler." In April of this year, the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued《商业银行金融资产风险分类暂行办法(征求意见稿)》, broadened the scope of financial assets classified by risk, broadened the risk classification object from all credit assets to the on- and off-balance sheet assets, and demanded over 90 days of debts, even if the mortgage guarantee was sufficient. Also classified as a non-performing loan.

xx因此,在边际缓解不良贷款存量压力的情况下,面对经济环境的不确定性,高质量的发展要求,以及更严格的新资产分类法规,银行业面临的风险压力将保持不变减少,整体资产质量可能会承受压力。

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